SourceZerodelayarcadeusbencoderAuthor of Hongye FuturesZerodelayarcadeusbencoderHongye futures
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[sugar]
Overnight ICE raw sugar prices rose and fell back, May contract delivery reached the fourth highest in history, reflecting the huge differences between the long and short sides, Russia announced restrictions on sugar exports, Brazil's new crushing season opened, sugar mills have been opened, Brazil's high-yield pressure continues, but the bad weather makes the market worried about production cuts, long and short intertwined, the fund's net short positions continue to increase, the outer market price volatility is weak. Yesterday, Zheng Sugar futures prices rebounded, the main SR2409 closed up to 6282 yuan / ton, positions decreased. Spot, yesterday's spot prices in the production areas continued to rise slightly by 10-20 yuan / ton.
On the domestic side, by the end of April, all the sugar plants had been squeezed during the 2023 / 24 sugar production period. During the current sugar production period, a total of 957 sugars were produced in China.Zerodelayarcadeusbencoder.310000 tons, an increase of 85% over the same period last yearZerodelayarcadeusbencoder.510000 tons, an increase of 9.81%. A total of 4.7345 million tons of sugar were sold nationwide, an increase of 359800 tons, or 8.23 percent, over the same period last year; and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 49.46 percent, down 0.72 percent from the same period last year. The inventory of the sugar industry was 4.8386 million tons, an increase of 495300 tons over the same period last year.
The import volume increased sharply from January to March compared with the same period last year, and the domestic sugar factories were squeezed one after another. In March, the domestic purchase and sales data were satisfactory, but the increase in domestic new sugar imports led to sufficient supply, while the market entered the off-season of demand, the downstream purchasing mentality was cautious, and the cumulative increase in industrial inventory was relatively fast. Spot prices continue to weaken. The decline in the outer disk led to a decline in import costs, and domestic spot stocks weakened, but the decline was less than that in the outer disk, and the range of losses on imports outside the quota narrowed.
The increase in domestic imports is obvious, the industrial inventory is gradually accumulated, and the fundamentals are short, but the outer disk agricultural products have entered a weather speculation sensitive period, and the rising water price in the future weather has increased, so investors are advised to buy near and sell far.
[cotton & cotton yarn]
In March 2024, the import volume of cotton products in the United States was 1.371 billion square meters, an increase of 10.52 percent over the same period last year, and an increase of 1.41 percent from January to March. The cumulative import volume of cotton products in the United States was 4.017 billion square meters, an increase of 6.33 percent over the same period last year.
On the domestic side, with the end of the listing of lint in 2023, commercial inventory has decreased, some large cotton enterprises are reluctant to sell, the price is strong, and the base difference is strong; however, after the positive price difference between internal and external prices, the profits of imported cotton are opened, which has a certain pressure on domestic cotton prices. On the demand side, the margin of domestic consumption in the lower reaches has weakened since late April, and the opening rate has declined steadily, but the overall pressure on finished products is not great.
It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and pay close attention to the upcoming annual report on supply and demand of US farmers.